European Journal of Scientific Research

Volume 118 No 1
Jan, 2014

Synthesis of Systems Modeling for Early Crisis Forecasting and Prevention

Robert Brumnik, Tamara Klebanova, Lidiya Guryanova, Olena Sergienko, Sergii Kavun and Viacheslav Nepomnyaschiy
The article highlight the conceptual statements the model basis formation of the early prevention systems crisis forecasting. The base model is presented as complex interrelated module based on macroeconomic indicators forecasting module adjusted for cycle-formation factors; regional development indicators forecasting module adjusted for cycle-formations; forecasting module of the economic crises and catastrophes in the socio-economic territories development. The developed model basis relies on the econometric modeling, Fourier analysis, adaptive filtration, multidimensional analysis and catastrophes theory methods. Model also give an opportunity to study the resonance phenomena in the economic indicators dynamics, forecast the local and global crises, and elaborate the strategic preventive arrangements seeking to localize crisis processes in the territories economic system development dynamics.
Keywords: Non-Linear Dynamics, Economic System Evolution Cyclicity, Crisis, Early Prevention System, Forecasting, Economic Catastrophe Models.
JEL Classifications: O11, R11, R 12, R58, ?53, ?54, C63

A Neural Network Based System for the Classification of Speech and Song
A. Muthamizh Selvan and R. Rajesh
Speech and Song classification plays a primary vital role to develop robust automatic speech recognition (ASR) applications in musical background. This paper presents a neural network based system for the classification of speech and song using the combination of features like, MFCC, zero crossings (ZCs), zero crossing rate (ZCR) and formants. The results of classification are promising.
Keywords: MFCCs, Zero-Crossing Rate (ZCR), Formants, Speech and Song Classification.

Assessing Effects of Geometry of Lateral Spillway in Hydraulic Conductivity Coefficient of Lateral Spillway of Embankment Channels
Najmeh Monazami, Hossein Sedghi, Seyed Habib Musavi Jahromi and Seyed Mohammad Sadegh Jalaledini Korki
Since wide-edge spillway is easy to construct and cost effective, they would be applied widely in water transfer systems as an instrument to measure flow intensity and control balance of water surface. Due to wide range application of wide-edge spillways, if its section dimensions become optimized, the design would be cost effective. An overview on previous literature indicates that, there has been no considerable work in regard with discharge on wide-edge spillways with trapezoidal section so far. The present study aims at conducting dimensional analysis and determining dimensionless parameters. The study would conclude that, discharge coefficient of lateral spillways is a function of upstream Froude number of spillway Fr1; spillway threshold P; and spillway length to width of channel bottom ratio L/b. the main objective of the present study is to investigate hydraulic of flow and determine intensity coefficient of flow in wide-edge lateral spillways, located in trapezoidal embankment channel. Therefore, experiments would be done on a spillway with three different heights. In general, 48 tests would be done on a wide-edge lateral spillway with length of 4m and under real conditions in laboratory of Soil Protection Research Center. Using experimental data, the study would conclude that, coefficient of discharge in lateral spillways is a function for threshold of lateral spillway and length to width ratio of the spillway.
Keywords: Wide-Edge Lateral Spillway, Coefficient of Discharge, Trapezoidal Embankment Channels.

Connaissances Sur La Dengue Des Medecins En Cote D’ivoire: Enquete Realisee En 2013
Ouattara N. Djénéba, Boby Bernadette, Ouattara Abdoulaye, Guinan J.C and Mireille Dosso
La dengue est une arbovirose transmise par les moustiques du genre Aedes. Il s'agit d'un problème important de santé avec une estimation de 2,5 milliards de personnes à risque, principalement dans les pays de Asie du Sud et du Sud-est, les Caraïbes, l'Amérique centrale et du Sud, et plus récemment en Afrique. Une épidémie de dengue notifié à partir de cas importés en France et au Japon a lieu en 2008 à Abidjan.Objectif:En vue d’évaluer le niveau de connaissance des médecins sur la dengue une enquête a été réalisée en 2013. Matériels et Méthodes Un questionnaire standardisé comprenant 21 questions a été administré à 101 médecins exerçant à différents niveaux de la pyramide sanitaire et dans diverses régions de la Côte d’Ivoire. Résultats Un nombre de médecins égal à 97 soit 96% a déclaré connaître la dengue. La dengue était considérée comme mortelle par 79 (78, 2%). Les modes de transmission, les vecteurs et les moyens de prévention sont moins connus des médecins enquêtés. Conclusion Un besoin en formation est souhaité par 96 (95%).
Mots clés: Personnel Medical, Connaissance, Dengue ; Flavivirus ; Arboviroses.

Characterization of Mahua Biodiesel by FTIR Spectroscopy
Gautam Kumar and Anoop Kumar
Biodiesel as one of the most promising alternative fuels and occupies a prominent position among the alternatives to conventional petrodiesel fuel owing to various technical and economic factors and efficient analytical techniques that can be used for the quality control of these fuels. In the present work an experimental method for determining the concentration of Mahua biodiesel in blends with petrodiesel; the method is based on infrared spectroscopy (FTIR-ATR). The biodiesel and 20 V%V blends with petrodiesel were analyzed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The results show that the model obtained in this work has a good ability for determining the concentration of Mahua biodiesel in petrodiesel-biodiesel blends.
Keywords: Mahua Biodiesel, Transesterification, FTIR

Total Quality Management and Employee Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Pharmaceutical Industry of Pakistan
Fawad Javed and Hummayoun Naeem
Total Quality management is a process through which organizations gain continuous improvements in the product or services they are offering. In addition to developed countries, the developing countries are also focusing their strategies on TQM implementation process to gain maximum benefit of their work. Keeping in perspective the significance of the issue, a comparative evaluation was planned to examine the impact of total quality management on employee productivity with employee engagement acting as a mediating variable. A sample of 300 employees was drawn from two Pharmaceutical companies of Pakistan: the first one was Global Pharmaceutical, where TQM was being implemented (CITQM). The second one was Vision Pharmaceuticals, where TQM was not being implemented (CNITQM).Tools were collected from body of knowledge for both variables and applied for the collection of data. Data from two sets were analyzed independently through regression coefficient. The results indicated a strongly positive relationship between Total Quality Management and Employee Productivity in CITQM with Employee Engagement acting as a partial mediating role.
Keywords: Total Quality Management, Employee Productivity, Employee Engagement, Pharmaceutical Industry of Pakistan.

Synthesis and Characterization of Novel Chalcone and Heterocycles from 3, 6-Diaminoacridine
Shokoofeh Espahbodinia, Farouk Kandil and Adnan Chehadeh
In the present paper, we have carried out the synthesis of new compounds via the reaction of 3, 6-diaminoacridine and terephthalaldehyde (A). The reaction of 2 moles 9-acetylacridine and 1 mole dialdehyde (A) in presence of hydroxylamine hydrochloride and sodium acetate in aqueous acetic acid solution (aldol condensation) gives B. In the next two steps our target was synthesis of new oxazoline and pyrazoline compounds. The structure of synthesized compounds was characterized by FT-IR, 1H-NMR and Mass spectra. The purity of the compounds was confirmed by TLC.
Keywords: 3, 6-Diaminoacridine, Terephthalaldehyde, Chalcone, Schiff Base, Aldol Condensation, Cyclization, Oxazoline, Pyrazoline.

Electric Load Prediction Technique using Multiple Regression Method a Case Study of Port Harcourt Metropolis
D.C. Idoniboyeobu and M.A. Newman
Modeling of electric load prediction technique for Port Harcourt, Nigeria is critical to its power system operation and planning to meet the ever increasing energy demand of the city. This task was achieved through the determination of past, present and future energy demand of Port Harcourt using the statistical multiple regression method. This paper presents the application of econometric model using a non linear multiple regression analysis to predict electric load of Port Harcourt up to the year 2021. The model was used to test a ten year previous electric load data of Port Harcourt city and ten years future electric load was predicted up to 2021. The number of households and population figures in Port Harcourt are two independent variables used to develop the econometric multiple regression model. The result obtained was compared with predicted values generated using the least square method, time series and exponential method which are linear regression. It was observed that multiple regression model results show the least percentage, least standard deviation error and took into account the actual factors that cause load increase in Port Harcourt city.
Keywords: Load Prediction, Multiple Regression Method.
Tracing the P2P Botnets Behaviours via Hybrid Analysis Approach
Raihana Syahirah Abdullah, Faizal M.A and Zul Azri Muhamad Noh
P2P botnets has become central issue that threatens global network security. The unification of botnets and P2P technology make it more powerful and complicated to detect. P2P botnets generally known with abnormal traffic behaviours may highly impact the networks operation, network security and cause financial losses. In order to detect these P2P botnets, a highly-profile investigation on flow analysis is necessary. We consider hybrid analysis approach that integrate both static analysis and dynamic analysis approach. The hybrid analysis will be used in profiling the P2P behaviours and characteristics. Then, the findings of analysis results will contributes on P2P botnets behaviour pattern that will be used in constructing the general model of P2P botnets behaviour. Through the findings, this paper proposes a general P2P botnets behaviour model. The proposed model will be beneficial to further work on P2P botnets detection techniques.
Keywords: P2P Botnets, P2P Security, P2P Botnets Hybrid Analysis, Static Analysis, Dynamic Analysis, IDS

Streptocoque du Groupe B dans une Maternite D’abidjan: Portage Vaginal, Colonisation du Nouveau-Ne, Distribution des Serotypes Et Sensibilites aux Antibiotiques
Gbonon Valérie Carole, Guessennd Nathalie, Ouattara N’GnohDjénéba, Tiékoura Bertin, Faye Ketté Hortense Yaobla and M. Dosso Mireille
Introduction: Les infections materno-fœtales sont la 1ère cause de mortalité néonatale dans le monde et particulièrement en Afrique. Le Streptocoque du groupe B (SGB) ou Streptococcus agalactiae est l’une des principales bactéries responsables de ces infections dans le monde et particulièrement en Afrique. Objectif: Décrire l’épidémiologie du portage vaginal, de la colonisation et de l’infection du nouveau-né par des souches de SGB. Matériel et Méthodes: Etude prospective avec recrutement exhaustif successif du 19 février 2008 au 19 mai 2008. Des prélèvements vaginaux en salle d’accouchement ont été réalisés chez les mères présentant un ou plusieurs facteurs de risque infectieux selon les critères de l’ANAES. Des prélèvements systématiques centraux (hémocultures), gastriques et périphériques (écouvillonnage auriculaire et rectal) ont été réalisés chez les nouveau-nés suspects d’infection. Ces prélèvements ont été ensemencés sur gélose au sang frais et sur milieu Granada. Résultats: Au total 96 couples mère-nouveau-né présentant un risque infectieux à l’accouchement ont été inclus dans cette étude parmi les 499 accouchements enregistrés sur cette période. Le taux de portage vaginal était de 21,9% (21/96). Le taux de transmission/colonisation du nouveau-né par le SGB était de 66,7% (14/21) avec un taux d’infection de 28,6% parmi ces nouveau-nés colonisés. Un taux d’infections néonatales de 21,8% (21/96) a été observé.Le SGB représentait 19% (4/21) des bactéries responsables de ces infections. Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus et Enterobacter< spp dans respectivement 62% (13/21), 14% (3/21) et 5% (1/21) des cas. Les quatre souches de SGB isolées d’hémoculture et de LCR étaient toutes sensibles à la pénicilline G. Conclusion: Une bonne connaissance de l’épidémiologie bactérienne des infections néonatales notamment à streptocoque b à Abidjan devrait permettre une meilleure prise en charge de ces infections par une antibiothérapie probabiliste adaptée.
Mots clés: Infection Materno-Foetale, Épidémiologie, Streptocoque Du Groupe B

Analysis of Various Mobility Patterns in Multicast Resource Sharing Mobile Peer-to-Peer Systems
Jayashree. D and Yogesh. P
The popularity of resource sharing Peer to Peer (P2P) applications for resource sharing and the availability of the enormous amount of autonomous resources have motivated the researchers to examine the potentials of the peer applications in a wireless dynamic environment like a Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET). In this paper, we propose an efficient content friendly system considering the need for attaining resources quickly and continuously in a peer to peer system that uses a MANET as the underlying network. It takes the main characteristics and constraints of MANETs and at the same time try to retain useful concepts of P2P networks. In order to reduce the search delay, the peers are grouped into clusters with respect to their contents/resources, an overlay network is formed among the peers and a multicast routing algorithm is employed in the overlay network for the communication within the group. Our protocol is a modified and refined form of PUMA and we call our protocol as Mobile Peer to Peer Resource Sharing Protocol (MPRSP). We run the simulation of the proposed scheme for the various mobility models to evaluate the scheme in terms of different evaluation metrics. We also check the performance of our scheme in high density, high traffic scenarios and find that the proposed scheme performs better than other schemes that are available in the literature.
Keywords: Peer-to-Peer Network, Resource Discovery, Multicasting, Mobility Model, Performance Evaluation.

A Class of Boolean Matrices Possessing Inverses Under XOR< and AND< Operations
P. Vidhya Saraswathi and M. Venkatesulu
Boolean matrices are usually studied under two basic operations of ‘AND’< and ‘OR’ between the elements. It is proved that such matrices have inverses provided they are Orthogonal matrices or Permutation matrices. Interestingly, these matrices have applications in variety of fields including electric circuits. In the present paper, we wish to study Boolean matrices under XOR and AND operations. We present a class of matrices having inverses which are not necessarily Permutation matrices or Orthogonal matrices. We hope that the study of these new inverses find applications in Cryptography in the development of efficient block ciphers for multimedia data encryption.
Keywords: Inverse, Lower Triangular, Reverse- Symmetric, Boolean Matrix.
Mathematics Subject Classification Codes: 15-XX, 15A09, 15A29, 06Exx, 06 E99

Modelling of Solar Radiation Resource in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Linear and Second Order Regression Models.
Luckywell Seyitini
This research work focuses on comparison of the performance of two regression models used to predict global solar radiation. Linear and second order regression models were developed for 10 stations, each representing one of the 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Measured data for global solar radiation and sunshine duration was used to formulate both models which mainly depend on sunshine hours as the input data for a particular location. Estimates of global solar radiation from the developed models were obtained and compared with the ground measured data. The results from statistical testing suggested that both regression models can be reliably used since their predictions have percentage errors that are less than 10% and the corresponding values for root mean square errors (rmse) are desirably low for all the stations used. However, it was observed that the second order model performs the same or better than the linear regression model since it has the lower values of rmse and percentage error.
Keywords: Clearness Index, Relative Sunshine Duration, Global Solar Radiation

Tendencies in Wind Energy Research
Ángel M. Costa, José A. Orosa, Rebeca Bouzón, Enrique J. García-Bustelo and Ángel Rodríguez-Fernández
In the present study, the main tendencies defined by the research group of Energy of the University of A Coruña in wind energy have been described with the aim of helping new researchers define their future works. In particular, two main kind of wind energy conversion has been described: Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) and Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT). HAWT showed different maintenance errors, which in accordance with recent research, can be related to weather conditions. On the other hand, VAWT were discussed and new and interesting aspects of moist air phase change were showed to improve its behavior. Furthermore, a combination of HAWT and VAWT to get homogeneity in electrical energy production has been proposed.
Keywords: Moist air, wind energy, climate, education.

New Tendencies about Moist Air Research
José A. Orosa, Ángel M. Costa, Feliciano Fraguela-Díaz and Ángel Rodríguez-Fernández
This paper presents the main advances obtained by a research group about moist air and its related engineering applications. The initial understanding of moist air behavior began with varied research on indoor ambiences, energy consumption by moist air, and related health issues. Based on the findings of previous studies, modification proposals of future standards about building energy consumption have been defined and an in-depth research industrial ambiences could be developed in extreme environments like ships; these results also allow defining new charts and working procedures to prevent heat stress and related health issues. From the study of indoor ambiences, a new aspect of moist air was incorporated to our research lines: the outdoor air, particularly, the wind energy. Two interesting results were obtained. (1) There is a clear relationship between weather and maintenance. (2) Method to improve real wind farms with low speed wind concentrators was obtained. Furthermore, from the climate change forecast for different regions of the world, new building constructive and wind farm modification proposals were obtained. Finally, as a consequence of the different software tools developed in these research, new teaching methods were obtained.
Keywords: Moist air, indoor ambiences, energy consumption, wind energy, climate, education.